Chance of flares today
This is from https://spaceweather.com/
CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: NOAA forecasters say there is a 45% chance of M-class solar flares and a 10% chance of X-flares today, Feb. 16th. The likely source would be big sunspot AR3226, which has an unstable delta-class magnetic field and is directly facing Earth. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
A CME IS COMING: Yesterday, Feb. 15th, a magnetic filament straddling the sun’s equator erupted and hurled a partial halo CME toward Earth. Earth is the yellow dot in this NASA model of the approaching CME:
— Elijah (@CherithElijah) February 16, 2023
A similar NOAA model agrees: The CME should arrive during the late hours of Feb. 17th. First contact is expected to produce a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm, intensifying to moderate G2-class storming on Feb. 18th. During such storms, auroras can spill into the United States as far south as, e.g., New York and Idaho (55 deg. geomagnetic latitude). Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
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AURORAS OVER NEW YORK: This morning, a crack opened in Earth’s magnetic field. Solar wind poured through the gap, sparking bright auroras as far south as New York. “It was a great surprise,” says James Perez-Rogers, who photographed the display at 1 am on Feb. 16th from the Ashokan Reservoir:
— Elijah (@CherithElijah) February 16, 2023
“The red color was not visible to the naked eye,” says Perez-Rogers, “but my camera picked it up easily.”
The “crack”–that is, an episode of negative BsubZ–was caused by a CME that passed close to Earth on Feb. 15th. South-pointing magnetic fields in the CME’s wake weakened Earth’s defenses against the solar wind, allowing the gaseous material to penetrate. Another CME expected to arrive on Feb. 17th could deliver a direct hit, creating even bigger cracks and brighter auroras.
Solar Ham
Check in with Solar Hamhttps://t.co/oIA8gOuIY7 pic.twitter.com/xdT1gOP4oM
— Elijah (@CherithElijah) February 16, 2023