Negative Efficacy
This article based on UK govt figures has two charts at the end showing vaxx and unvaxx death (in numbers) but also “adjusted rates” (per 100k) which seems to establish the opposite. Whereas the first chart shows more vaxx numbers dying the second chart show the unvaxx have a higher death rate? How is that possible?
These were my calculations
These charts are based on the numbers on page 39 and the adjusted rates on page 40
Rate of death vaccinated per 100k =50 (80+)
1,500 vaxx died (how big the vaxx population?)
3,000,000 (3 million vaccinated) 1,500 deaths
therefore 1,500/ 3,000,000 x 100,000 = 50 deaths
50 people per 100,000 die
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Rate of death unvaccinated per 100k = 250 (80+)
250 people died
…therefore 100k people unvaccinated?
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Questions:
1. Is my reasoning correct?
2. There are 100 k people over 80+ unvaxx and 250 died but did they die of covid?
** number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and either died within 60 days of the first positive test or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate.
If this rate of death applied to everyone over 80+ (3 million)
then we would expect 7,500 deaths (instead of 1,500) so vaccination saved 6,000 (80+) lives but…
….nearly half a million of this cohort die every year anyway (see under)..
as far as I can see this is statistical slight of hand..
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For context:
Death in people aged 75 years and older in England in 2017
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/death-in-people-aged-75-years-and-older-in-england-in-2017/death-in-people-aged-75-years-and-older-in-england-in-2017
Amongst those aged 75 years and older in England in 2017, 1.8 million (40.0%) were aged 75 to 79, 1.4 million (30.2%) were aged 80 to 84, 856,812 (18.9%) were aged 85 to 89, and 495,244 (10.9%) were aged 90 years and older.
In 2017, there were 498,882 deaths amongst people of all ages in England. In general, death is an event that occurs in old age. In 2017, 341,620 (68.5%) of all deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older, of which 17.6% were amongst people aged 75 to 79, 23.5% were amongst people aged 80 to 84, 27.0% were amongst people aged 85 to 90, and 32.0% were amongst people older than 90 years.
Therefore….
- 117,237 deaths (80-84) in 1.4m population = 8.4% of 80-84 year olds died of natural causes in 2017
- 134,698 deaths (85-90) in 856,812 population = 15.7% of 85-90 year olds died of natural causes in 2017
- 159,642 deaths (90+) in 495,244 population = 32% of 90+ died of natural causes in 2017
- Total population 80+ = 2,752,056 (2.7 m in 2017) total natural death pre-covid = 411,577 = 15%