Tag: oscillations

Cycle 25 Predictions

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Cycle 25 Predictions

Will Solar Cycle 25 have more or less sun spots than the previous cycle?   Will it be hotter or colder?  Will we face a mini  ice-age or a warmer planet?

Don’t let anyone tell you the science is settled.  It looks as if it is getting cooler and we are entering a solar minimum. However, in the next video Ben remarks that the sun is ramping up (sunspot activity) 100x faster than Valentina Zharkova predicted. Really?  Watch this short video and then the one by Diamond from Magnetic Reversal:

Magnetic Biology, Solar Cycle Progression, Nova Jumpers | S0 News Aug.2.2021

Now, in order to get some perspective, watch this video from Magnetic Reversal.

Solar Cycle 25 Predictions Based On Current Data, Machine Learning & More – And Their Implications

The Sun is stirring from its latest slumber. As sunspots and flares, signs of a new solar cycle, bubble from the Sun’s surface, scientists wonder what this next cycle will look like. The short answer is, probably a lot like the last — that is, the past 11 years of the Sun’s life, since that’s the average length of any given cycle. But the longer story involves a panel of experts that meets once a decade, a fleet of Sun-studying satellites, and dozens of complicated models — all revolving around efforts to understand the mystifying behavior of the star we live with. NASA scientists study and model the Sun to better understand what it does and why. The Sun has its ups and downs and cycles between them regularly. Roughly every 11 years, at the height of this cycle, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip — on Earth, that’d be like if the North and South Poles swapped places every decade — and the Sun transitions from sluggish to active and stormy. At its quietest, the Sun is at solar minimum; during solar maximum, the Sun blazes with bright flares and solar eruptions. Solar cycle predictions give a rough idea of what we can expect in terms of space weather, the conditions in space that change much like weather on Earth. Outbursts from the Sun can lead to a range of effects, from ethereal aurora to satellite orbital decay, and disruptions to radio communications or the power grid. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is the U.S. government’s official source for space weather forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts: With accurate predictions, we can prepare. https://go.nasa.gov/3mD3sPe Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts. ‘The Panel’ & 2. NASA https://bit.ly/3lmJVWn New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record https://bit.ly/3A4QAJa Prediction of maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 using machine learning https://bit.ly/3lnNZ8O Solar Cycle Comparison Chart https://bit.ly/2WAgfIw Solar Cycle 25 Is Here. NASA, NOAA Scientists Explain https://go.nasa.gov/3zYFgOo Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations https://bit.ly/37gKFUS Composite Prediction Graphic https://bit.ly/2VrEIlg

Conclusions

I always rated the Zharkova model because she did PCA on the magnetic solar field data and showed that using PCA you could separate out two different magnetic waves.  So you have  two oscillating fields present in different layers of the sun, a sort of “double dynamo”. Sometimes these waves are in phase and they strengthen each other and sometimes they are reversed and cancel each other.

She calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. However, she was forced to retract the article but issued this response (in 2019);

We have published last week a preprint with the confirmation using the real ephemeris of the daily Earth-Sun distances that our results reported in paper Zharkova et al, 2019 are correct. The variations of Sun-Earth distances hinted in the paper were confirmed by the S-E distance ephemeris.

Therefore, the paper Zharkova et al, 2019 has been retracted without any grounds!

Read our preprint paper and the Appendices which use the real ephemeris of the distances.

Archive paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008....,

Appendix 1 – S-E distances from the ephemeris https://solargsm.com/wp-con...

Appendix 2 – solar irradiance variations based on this distance changes https://solargsm.com/wp-con...

We have since learned that nature published the “proximal origins” narrative ( the lie that covid has  “natural origins” and is zoonotic).  So the once respected science journal has become completely captured by globalist-Marxist “woke” ideology and will not publish anything that runs counter the climate change narrative.  In the tweet below I have taken the plot that is in the Zharkova article and roughly measured twelve thousand year segments (catastrophe cycle approx 12,600 years).

In her plot (top one) the modulus summary curve of two PCs (principle Components) associated with averaged sunspot numbers calculated backward 120 (one hundred twenty) thousand years. The red line shows the baseline oscillations with a period of about 40 thousand years likely associated with the Earth’s axial tilt (obliquity) .  However….perhaps the red line is associated with something else….like the galactic sheet?  

Scaling and resizing is not very accurate but good enough to see if you download the image. I have placed data from miles long ice core drills on the same plot. I had to resize the images but you get the idea. Note that you can clearly see the two biggest peaks on the top  Zharkova plot line up with Toba (the super volcano blast) and the Mono Lake and Lake Mungo events. These also line up with increased atmospheric dust found in ice cores. Something happened or should I say something happens on a cyclical basis. In her article Zharkova also notes the influence of Jupiter and Saturn.

Diamond from Magnetic Reversal notes at 3:45 that Machine Learning predicts this eleven year cycle to have slightly less sun spots than cycle 25 which means we are moving into Grand Minima with cycle 26 predicted to be extremely low.

Note that the Temperature difference (blue graph) shows just 8 degrees Celsius lower in Greenland, at the minimum. This would have made the northern most regions uninhabitable, but people in Mesopotamia for example would have been able to adapt and evolve very well. What is the big deal there? Instead of 25 degrees Celsius you would have to survive on 17°? The charts suggests also that Scandinavia could not feed any population between 10,000 BC and 120,000 BC.  Of course changing climate results in changing grow zones and mass migration which is a problem when there are 8 billion people on the planet.

So, it is complicated but one thing is certain – it has nothing to do with cow farts or driving cars.  I think a lot of factors are involved including the configuration of the other planets (as David DuByne suggests) and whether or not the solar oscillations are in phase or not.